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Seven years ago, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance & Closed Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document and Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.