🔗 Share this article The President's Assertive Prediction on US Energy Funding in Venezuela Meets Industry Doubt. Energy analysts have voiced considerable caution regarding bullish predictions that US energy majors will quickly invest tens of billions of dollars to rebuild the country's dilapidated energy sector. Demand for Iron-Clad Guarantees Absent an absolute assurance of full reimbursement from the US federal government, experts believe global energy giants to proceed with extreme caution. “It seems too early to speculate on any future business activities,” a spokesperson said this weekend. The aggressive timeframe of under 18 months was boldly outlined. However, expert analyses indicate a more cautious outlook. A Likely Outlook “It’s probably going to take multiple years for any meaningful output increase,” said an industry expert. The analysis indicates energy firms would likely spend: Year one: Securing new government and security contracts. Year two: Beginning reconstruction of equipment. The third year: Starting to boost production. The result could be an increase of around half a million barrels per day possibly by 2029. Appetite Compared to Readiness for Investment Experts make a important separation between firms' attention and their readiness to commit significantly. “In my view their attention is an high score, on a scale of ten. However, their willingness is a much lower, because there is no clarity yet.” Experienced operators in the region share this caution. The expectation is that majors will publicly express enthusiasm while privately proceeding with extreme caution. The Colossal Cost The monetary investment would be vast. University estimates suggest that adding between 500,000 and a million barrels per day would require over $10 billion in funding over several years. But, restoring production to historical levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years. The Pending Issue of Government Backing The suggestion of oil giants being reimbursed by the US taxpayer has been often floated. Nevertheless, formal assurances on this proposal have so far not been announced. This lack of certainty is the main reason behind the sector's reluctance. Firms seek safeguards against sovereign risk and the possibility that a subsequent administration could cancel any deal. “They must be shielded from sovereign risk, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela previously.” Therefore, while political optimism runs strong, the practical realities suggest a journey of slow deliberation for any large-scale financial commitment in the country's energy industry.